Tuesday, 30 June 2009

The economy: it's even worse than we thought

Three weeks ago we reported that GDP had contracted by 2.2% instead of the 1.9% originally reported.

Today the ONS has updated its estimate to a -2.4% drop in GDP in the first three months of 2009. The ONS also now says the recession began during the second quarter (Apr-Jun) of 2008 rather than during July to September, so that the recession has now been running for a whole year. This means GDP in March 2009 was -4.9% lower than it was in March 2008.

This is how the GDP figure for the first quarter of 2009 broke down across the different sectors:
  • Construction: down 6.9%
  • Service sector: down 1.6%
  • Banking and finance: down 2.5%
  • Manufacturing: down 5.5%
The recently published CBI Industrial Trends survey saw export orders fall sharply in June as the rest of our major trading partners continue to languish in recession too.

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