The headline figure from today's statistics is that the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance fell by 32,300 to 1.59 million in February.
But unemployed people not claiming does not been unemployment is going down. A far more alarming statistic is that the number of people in work fell in the quarter, by 54,000 to 28.86 million.
So 54,000 fewer people are earning a wage in February than in January. That is the real statistic. It means less tax revenue into the Exchequer, and less consumer demand in the economy. This is bad news. Until the number of people in work starts rising consistently talk of a recovery is premature.
Another baseline is the continued rise in the number of long-term unemployed (over a year), which rose by 61,000 to 687,000 in February. The social consequences of long-term unemployment have been well-documented by professors Danny Dorling and Richard Wilkinson.